Connor Bedard would be closer to Montreal than people think

Published November 30, 2022 at 4:16 PM

Now that a quarter of the season is behind us, we can quietly analyze the overall picture of the NHL.

The first thing to note is that the Habs are in a much better position than all the experts and most fans expected before the season started.

It must be said that Martin St-Louis' team is surprising everyone, as they had not won a single preseason game and started the season with four rookie defensemen in the lineup, as well as a fifth on the attack.

Currently, the Habs are playing just above .500 and are 19th overall in the NHL with an 11-10-1 record.

However, fans are still entitled to dream about a top pick in the next draft and potentially even Connor Bedard.

As Marco Normandin of reports, at least that's what journalist Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic says, based on a computer model that runs 50,000 simulations in order to make a prediction, he expects to see the Habs fall back to earth in the very near future.

According to the model, the Habs would finish the season with a total of 72 points, which would place the team 28th overall in the league and give them a top-5 pick. This position would give Kent Hughes an 8.5% chance of getting the top pick in the upcoming draft.


For this prediction to be accurate, the Habs would have to compile a record of approximately 22-31-7 (.442) by the end of the season, after maintaining a record of 11-10-1 (.523) to date.

This is because the CH's schedule since the beginning of the season has been very favourable and the quality of the opposing teams will get tougher very soon. Add to that the lack of depth on the team, both on the blue line and in front of the net, as well as potential personnel moves that could influence the club's results.

Also, it is quite reasonable to believe that the Capitals (20th), the Wild (21st), the Predators (22nd), and the Blues (23rd) will all end up overtaking the CH in the overall standings at some point, due to the greater depth in their respective rosters. The same is true for the Canucks (24th), Sabres (27th), and Senators (29th), all of whom have a reasonable chance of getting back on track by the end of the season.

Let's face it, with the pool of quality prospects that will be available in the 2023 draft, there's absolutely no doubt that adding high-level talent would be major for the future of the franchise.

In addition, the Habs have another first round pick that is currently looking good in the upcoming draft. Indeed, the Florida Panthers' poor performance could give Hughes another chance to get his hands on another top draft pick.

Imagine for two seconds if this scenario came true... Ben Chiarot turning into Adam Fantilli!

Also, the CH pick has a very good chance of being a top 8-10 pick considering that the "easy" portion of the schedule is behind them! That would be HUGE!

Picking twice in the top 15 would be huge in this year's deep draft.

Credit: HabsolutelyFan
November 30   |   279 answers
Connor Bedard would be closer to Montreal than people think

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